A Palestinian State
The central point of Trump’s 20-point Gaza Peace Plan is Point 19, which, though vague, refers to the creation of a Palestinian state. It states: “While Gaza re-development advances and when the PA reform program is faithfully carried out, the conditions may finally be in place for a credible pathway to Palestinian self-determination and statehood, which we recognize as the aspiration of the Palestinian people.”
The remaining 19 points will ultimately fail if this goal is not achieved. The establishment of a Palestinian state is the only viable path to ending Israel’s occupation of Palestinian territories. Without a sovereign Palestinian state, Hamas will not be disarmed, no sufficient aid will come into Gaza, and the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) will not withdraw—or will at least retain the option to return. It goes without saying that, during a transitional period, the administration in Gaza would likely involve neighboring Arab states. Trump’s plan suggests that Gaza will be governed under the temporary transitional governance of a technocratic, apolitical Palestinian committee and international experts. But a transition to what? The goal must clearly be a Palestinian state.
The Mistake of the Abraham Accords and the Consequences for Gaza
The terrorist attack by the Palestinian organization Hamas on October 7, 2023, halted the crucial negotiations that were supposed to take place shortly after. However, President Trump, who had initiated the Abraham Accords with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, wanted to continue implementing them. The Abraham Accords were intended to “normalize” relations between Arab states and Israel without taking Palestinian interests into account. The option of a two-state solution had been pushed even further into the background by the Abraham Accords.
Some Arab states, such as the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, disregarded this and chose to proceed with the Abraham Accords despite Palestinian exclusion, wanting to maintain normal relations with Israel. However, such attempts by Arab states, with facilitation from the US, to recognize Israel without taking into account the rights of the Palestinians, were ultimately exploited by Hamas to enable the terrorist attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, leaving 1,200 people dead. The Israeli army then responded to the attack by destroying much of the Gaza Strip, where well over five percent of the population was wiped out.
The 2002 Arab Peace Plan and Iran
The US will continue to support Israel, and President Trump will adhere to the Abraham Accords. The question is whether the Gulf states can formulate conditions for these agreements that protect the rights of the Palestinians. Israel will not disappear, as some narratives in the Middle East claim. Iran also claims to represent the interests of the Palestinians while, at the same time, refusing to recognize the state of Israel. Moreover, mutual military attacks are dramatically increasing tensions in the Middle East. To reduce these tensions without giving up its support for the Palestinians, Iran must take a leap of faith. It could recognize Israel within the 1967 borders. This would fall within the framework of the 2002 Arab Peace Plan, which provides for recognition of Israel only if a Palestinian state is established within these borders at the same time.
If Iran does not want to isolate itself, it must take this step of recognition and give up the hope that Israel will one day cease to exist. It also seems that President Trump is open to such a development. When presenting his 20-point plan, he expressed the hope that Iran would join the Abraham Accords.
A Regional Peace Solution
Ultimately, a regional cooperative solution must be found in the Middle East and the Gulf region. A dialogue forum of Islamic states would have to complement the Abraham Accords and include a sovereign Palestinian state. Such a forum, based on the sovereign equality, nonviolence, and nonintervention of all participating states, would prevent a normalization process between individual Arab states and Israel from becoming a solo effort without the recognition of a Palestinian state.
The Gulf region and the Middle East must find their own peace solution. The Abraham Accords, in their current form, are insufficient for this and divide the Arab world. If they are to be successful, they must be linked to a cooperative dialogue forum of Islamic states, including representatives of a Palestinian state. This would include Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the future Syria, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, Yemen, and Palestine. Representatives of the United Nations, members of the Security Council, and the EU could participate. Its principles would be territorial integrity, sovereignty, non-violence, non-intervention, and the indivisibility of security, which must also apply to a Palestinian state. This would also be in line with the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative. However, it also implies that Iran must recognize Israel within the 1967 borders. Iran could then also be involved in the administration of the Gaza Strip during the transition period.
A Two-State Solution Must Be the Outcome
The outcome must be a two-state solution—meaning the recognition of two independent states. Point 20 of Trump’s Peace Plan also alludes to such an outcome: “The United States will establish a dialogue between Israel and the Palestinians to agree on a political horizon for peaceful and prosperous co-existence.” However, the plan leaves out the crucial final words: “…co-existence of two states.”
Univ. Prof. Dr. Heinz Gärtner is a lecturer in the Department of Political Science at the University of Vienna and at Danube University. He was the academic director of the Austrian Institute for International Affairs. He has held various Fulbright Fellowships and the Austrian Chair at Stanford University. He was an Austrian Marshall Plan Foundation Fellow at Johns Hopkins University in Washington, DC. Among other things, Gärtner chairs the Strategy and Security Advisory Board of the Austrian Armed Forces and the Advisory Board of the International Institute for Peace (IIP) in Vienna. He has published widely on international security, nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament, US foreign policy, geopolitics, Iran, and the Middle East.