„Israel and United Arab Emirates strike historic peace deal“ was one of the headlines in the international media on 14th of August. This headline of the Financial Times expressed the official US position since it was the US or more specifically Jared Kushner who brokered this deal. However, there was no war between Israel and the UAE, so the normalization of diplomatic relations between Israel and the UAE could not be called correctly a peace deal. Anyway, it should be normal, that two countries, especially if located in the same region, are having normal diplomatic relations. But, if you look at the process of the foundation of Israel and the ongoing conflict between Israel and the Palestinians, it is no surprise that there are not yet normal relations between Israel and the Arab states. And that is also true with regard to the two Arab states, which have already had diplomatic relations with Israel: Egypt and Jordan. Still, this did not yet help to solve the Palestinian/Israeli conflict. And the deviation of the UAE from the Arab peace plan, which connected the opening of diplomatic relations with the readiness of Israel to recognize a Palestinian state, is no step forward towards peace either.
Will this new agreement which initiated diplomatic relations at least reduce tensions between Israel and the Palestinians? Well, an argument for the Emirates to open diplomatic relations was the Israeli readiness to put the annexation of big parts of the West Bank on hold. But firstly, there was and there is no Israeli promise to renounce the annexation in principle, it speaks just of a postponement. Secondly, it is strange to have the renounciation of an illegal act as a present accepted by the UAE. And thirdly, there was a lot of resistance and doubt in Israel itself about the usefulness of such an annexation. So it is not surprising, that the Palestinian leadership speaks about being betrayed by the UAE and all – few – sympathizers in the Arab world. And it gave Iran and to a lesser degree Turkey the possibility to present themselves as the true and only supporter of the Palestinian people.
But what this agreement - and perhaps others which might follow in the future – shows, is the fact, that there is no united Arab front in supporting the Palestinian people. Yet, this is not new, but can be observed already for many years as the de facto relations between Israel and many Arab governments were and still are growing. Additionally, what all the last years showed as well, is the lack of an active and successful diplomatic activity also from the Palestinian side. I always had the feeling, that they rely too much on the sympathy of the world for the fate and sufferings of the Palestinian people. Whenever I visited - as a member of the European Parliament- leaders of the Palestinians – including Arafat – I raised the issue of better and more sophisticated diplomatic activities. True is, that Israel has much more resources and gained – especially due to the Holocaust - more sympathy in the Western world and even beyond. But the simplistic and stubborn activities of Palestinian leaders and diplomats did also not help to raise the support from Europe and elsewhere.
After this „historic“ agreement, many hope that the Palestinians will be ready for a compromise as it was designed in the Kushner plan, presented some months ago. But one could also call it an additional surrender of Palestinian people which is also proposed in Trump’s „deal of the century“. Of course, especially Iran will see it as such and will continue to support the Palestinians and especially Hamas. However, one characterizes the agreement between Israel and the UAE, it fueled the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians and between Iran and its Arab neighbours more than it helped to re-initiate a peace process. On the other side, the United States and most Arab countries hope for a decisive weakening of Iran, which can also be noted when looking at the re-introduction of additional sanctions of the US against Iran. Anyway, the huge catastrophe after the horrible explosion which recently happened in Lebanon plus the strong dissatisfaction of the Lebanese people with the corrupt political system, including the role of Hezbollah inside this system, also weakened Iran`s role in the region. So it is not only the Palestinians but also Iran and its regional proxies, which have to consider how they will react to the new situation in the Middle East. Unfortunately, there is no longterm strategy of Iran to improve the living conditions of its people in a difficult environment visible. The US and especially President Trump are undermining the Iranian government, trying to gain at least one success in foreign policy to sell to the US population before the upcoming presidential elections . But Iran is not trying to win friends worldwide by refraining from undermining some of their neighboring governments. Destabilizing neighbors is not a successful policy, when there are strong powers, which will also react on a regional and international level.
Until now all actors in the Middle East are just fighting for more power, but no one is proposing realistic plans for peace. What Iran should realize, is that for now, the US has shown strength in fighting for its interests in the Middle East, irrespective of a new „pivot to Asia“. Yes, the US did not bring peace to the region. But that is not the aim of President Trump. He is interested in showing strength and in doing business especially by selling weapons and other expensive military equipment. Fact is, that recently, the balance of power changed in the direction Mr. Trump has in mind. But this does not help the citizens of the region. It would need more sophisticated strategies to give peace – or to initiate a peace-process - and economic growth in this region. Also the Emirates are not really on the winning side. In the last years, they have had not much success in their efforts to gain power and influence. Neither the boycott of Qatar, nor the war in Yemen and the support for General Haftar in Libya are successful endeavors. One can doubt if this new initiative will help to strengthen the position of the Emirates, unless Saudi Arabia is following their example. But even then, we are, very unfortunately, not closer to peace.
Picture: https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Datei:Jerusalem_from_Mount_Of_Olives_at_night.jpg
Dr. Hannes Swoboda, President of the International Institute for Peace (IP), started his career in urban politics in Vienna and was elected member of the European Parliament in 1996. He was Vice President of the Social Democrat Group until 2012 und then President until 2014. He was particularly engaged in foreign, enlargement, and neighborhood policies. Swoboda is also President of the Vienna Institute for International Economics, the Centre of Architecture, the University for Applied Science - Campus Vienna, and the Sir Peter Ustinov Institute.