Panelists:
HAROLD CHAMBERS, Political and security analyst, USA
BADRI BELKANIA, Political Scientist, Georgia
Moderation:
ELENE GAGNIDZE, Project Assistant of the International Institute for Peace (IIP) and European Capital of Democracy ECoD, Austria
Content:
The North Caucasus is a region within Russia that includes Chechnya. It is a complex region that would require many volumes to address comprehensively. However, despite its complexity, the region is vital for Russia in terms of security due to its proximity to Iran, Georgia, Azerbaijan, and Turkey. Furthermore, given its vast oil reserves, it also allows Russia access to the Black Sea, the Caspian Sea, and the Azov Sea, which is essential to Russia’s energy supply.
The relationship between Moscow and the peoples of the North Caucasus has, at times, been volatile. Secessionist and pro-independence movements have led to regional conflicts, most notably including the Chechen-Russian wars in the late 1990s and 2000s. But the relationship between them has evolved under the presidency of Vladimir Putin. In February 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine, Putin identified various military units, including those led by the head of Chechnya Ramzan Kadyrov, as critical assets for its invasion. Most of Kadyrov's troops are believed to be deployed with the country's National Guard. During the war, he also established volunteer battalions to help recruit soldiers.
At the same time, Russia’s partial military mobilisation in September 2022 changed the atmosphere in Chechnya and sparked widespread anti-mobilisation demonstrations. Protests were accompanied by increased online activity supporting political resistance and insurgent movements that challenged the legitimacy of local authorities. In response, law enforcement beat and detained many women after they protested against the conscription in Chechnya. At the same time, the war has led to a wave of support for Ukraine across the North Caucasus, especially among Chechens, who suffered greatly during the two wars in their region. The Chechen diaspora has held public gatherings across various European countries to show its support for Ukraine, with many Chechens viewing Russia’s aggression against Ukraine as similar to its actions in Chechnya two decades ago. This solidarity has generated a response from Ukraine: the Verkhovna Rada adopted a resolution on October 18, 2022 that condemned ‘the genocide’ against the Chechen people and recognised the “Chechen Republic of Ichkeria” under temporary Russian occupation.
How has the war in Ukraine affected the situation in Chechnya? Will there be more protests in the North Caucasus? What do the Chechen people themselves think? Is the region ready for changes? What might be the political future for the “Chechen Republic of Ichkeria”? Does the West support the Chechen cause? How is the independence movement perceived in the Kremlin? Our speakers will tackle these questions and many more.