Speakers:
SHUJAAT AHMADZADA, Independent researcher
ANNA HESS SARGSYAN, Head of Conflict Resolution at the Austrian Center for Peace
THOMAS DE WAAL, journalist and writer, Senior Fellow with Carnegie Europe
STEFAN MEISTER, Head of the Center for Order and Governance in Eastern Europe, Russia, and Central Asia at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Moderation:
· STEPHANIE FENKART, Directorof the IIP
Content:
The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan has persisted since the final days of the Soviet Union. Some would even argue that it began much earlier, at the beginning of the 20th century or even in the 19th century. The most recent escalation in this decades-long cycle of conflict and violence occurred in September 2023, when Azerbaijan took full control over the region of Nagorno-Karabakh, choosing to restore its territorial integrity by force and thus ignoring the previous years of negotiations with Armenia. An autonomous oblast, predominantly populated by ethnic Armenians but administratively part of Soviet Azerbaijan, Nagorno-Karabakh declared its independence in 1991, which resulted in a full-scale war between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the early 1990s. Armenia came out victorious, taking control not only of Nagorno-Karabakh, but also adjacent seven regions of Azerbaijan. As a result, NK declared itself an unrecognized de facto Republic, that ceased to exist with the September 2023 Azeri offensive and forced displacement.
Azerbaijan’s takeover of Nagorno-Karabakh in September appears to have ostensibly resolved the protracted conflict by force. Upon closer examination, however, the region is as far from peace as ever. Almost the entire population of Nagorno-Karabakh has fled to Armenia, fearing further violence by Azerbaijani forces. The previous negotiation efforts facilitated by the EU and the US, which aimed to find non-military solutions to the two countries’ disputes, have been rendered effectively irrelevant. Moreover, the threat of further military clashes or an outright attack by Azerbaijan on Armenian territory remains real. These dramatic developments are happening concurrently with attempts by the regional and extra-regional powers to make the South Caucasus a transit hub for transportation and goods, as the necessity of such alternative route has grown in demand after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. At the moment, this transit potential serves as the only hope for any future pan-regional cooperation.
What does the new reality in Nagorno-Karabakh mean for the future of the conflict and the South Caucasus region? Is further military escalation still possible? What role do external powers, such as Russia, Turkey, and the EU, play in this conflict and the South Caucasus region more broadly? What is the situation of Karabakh Armenians today? Why are the violent means of taking control over Nagorno-Karabakh perceived as restoring justice in Azerbaijan? Are there any prospects for a genuine dialogue between the conflicting parties? Can the EU play a role in supporting efforts towards a sustainable solution and preventing further violence? This panel of eminent experts will attempt to answer these and many other questions surrounding the deep-rooted conflict in this part of the European neighborhood.