Executive Summary
At the heart of the conflicts raging in different parts of Ethiopia lie ideological, territorial, and ethnic tensions. This complex problem in turn calls for an integrated approach of conflict management and transformation, strategies dealing with discourses related to “ancient ethnic hatred” and other problematic narratives, and the settlement of political differences and territorial claims through genuine negotiations at a political level.
The primary structural causes of the civil: the institutionalization of prejudices and a faulty constitutional design; unbridled ethnic nationalism; a mismanaged political transition; tension between status quo and reform forces the misguided peace agreement between Ethiopia and Eritrea; the long-standing animosity between the Amhara and Tigray regional governments over contested territory; and the deterioration in the security architecture that resulted from the change of regime in 2018.
The main actors in the conflict range from members of the federation to neighboring states and great powers.
The main sticking points to the resolution of the conflict include the status of contested territories, the ensuring of criminal accountability, the de-listing of the TPLF from a terrorist designation, the power-sharing scheme between Abiy’s government and the TPLF at the federal level, the fate of the Tigray Defense Forces (TDF), the linkage between the peace process and the planned national dialogue, and the need for and possibility of national reconciliation.
Actionable Recommendations: a holistic approach is needed; apply multi-pronged confidence building measures; structural causes of the crises must be addressed; the national dialogue process needs to be revamped; engage all relevant stakeholders; the framing, (de)-linking, and ordering of issues play crucial role in resolving the conflict; temporary security guarantee for hotspot areas; and guiding principles for mediators are in order:context specific interventions, priority for human security, ripeness of conflict, understand the nature of intractable conflicts, bridge information asymmetry, make use of insider-partial mediator and watch out for spoilers (“include the devils if you must, exclude them if you can”).
Introduction
Ethiopia is one of Africa’s oldest multicultural states, with many different ethnic groups living together in relative harmony for much of its history.[1] However, over the last few decades, Ethiopia has become a deeply divided country, characterized by ethnic divisions, cycles of violence, a pervasive culture of impunity, competing historical narratives, and polarized political discourse. Following the overthrow of the Derg regime in 1991, Ethiopia became a federal state, constituted of eleven regional states based on ethno-linguistic criteria and two metropolitan city administrations. For nearly three decades, the Tigray People´s Liberation Front (TPLF) -- a political party representing the eponymous minority ethnic group – dominated Ethiopia’s political landscape until a popular protest forced the regime to commit to “deep reforms” in April 2018. Subsequently, a flawed reform process quickly began purging TPLF political elites, leading to a fallout between the central government led by Abiy Ahmed and the TPLF. This fractious relationship (as symbolized by increasingly inflammatory rhetoric), coupled with other structural issues, eventually led to the outbreak of civil war in the northern part of the country.[2]
The civil war, now almost two year old, has had devastating consequences: hundreds of thousands of people have lost their lives, all parties to the conflict have committed heinous international crimes -- including war crimes, crimes against humanity, sexual violence, and possibly the starvation of civilians as a tactic of war,[3] resulting in the worst humanitarian crisis in the history of modern Ethiopian history, if not the world[4] -- the country has lost its former diplomatic status in the region, and inflammatory war rhetoric is on the brink of tearing the country’s social fabric apart.[5]
At the heart of the conflicts raging in different parts of Ethiopia[6] lie ideological, territorial, and ethnic tensions. This complex problem in turn calls for an integrated approach of conflict management and transformation, strategies dealing with discourses related to “ancient ethnic hatred” and other problematic narratives, and the settlement of political differences and territorial claims through genuine negotiations at a political level.
At this juncture, Ethiopian society must seek reconciliation with itself. In the event that Ethiopia fails to save itself – as appears to be the case as things stand now -- someone else will have to step in,[7] given how high the stakes are. Crucially, without effective management of the conflict, the potential disintegration of Ethiopia looms and the future of Ethiopia hangs in the balance.
Thus, a comprehensive peace strategy that aims to transform the conflicts from ethnic warfare to sustainable peace is needed. Accordingly, this policy paper aims to shed light on the structural causes and dynamics of the conflict in Ethiopia and advance some actionable recommendations.
Moges Teshome joined the International Institute for Peace as a project assistant in April 2022. Mr. Teshome holds a Bachelor of Law from Addis Ababa University, LLM in International Criminal Justice and Human Rights from the University of Dundee and Master of Advanced International Studies from Vienna School of International Studies. Mr. Teshome’s research interests include conflict management and regional security, global human rights and advocacy, international criminal justice, the normative study of international relations, non-proliferation and peaceful uses of nuclear technology and sustainable development. Before joining the IIP, Mr. Teshome interned at Vienna Center for Disarmament and Non-proliferation as well as served as a lecturer of law and associate dean at Haramaya University College of Law. At Haramaya University, he was responsible for teaching various legal courses, undertaking policy-oriented research and community services, notably coordination of free legal aid for the needy and marginalised section of the society.