What is happening now in Afghanistan with the Taliban entering Kabul again, 20 years after they were forcefully withdrawn from power by the US-led NATO intervention in 2001, is shaking up the world stage again. The quick withdrawal of the international troops paved the way for the Taliban to re-take with unexpected speed, 20 years later, the power over Afghanistan which ultimately culminated on Sunday 15th of August 2021 in the escape of president Aschraf Ghani to Uzbekistan and the declaration of victory of the Taliban.
Many were surprised by the velocity of the advances the Taliban were able to accomplish and the blame-game has already started calling Afghanistan one of the biggest mistakes in US Foreign policy and questioning the whole NATO mission. It seems that everyone fails when it comes to Afghanistan: the colonial British Empire, the Soviet Union and now the “West”. Peace for Afghanistan, and that is the biggest tragedy, is ever far away and nobody yet knows what this will mean for the people living within Afghanistan in the years to come – especially for the women and girls.
What is obvious and always was obvious is that mistakes have been made from the beginning. It seems that the composition of the very diverse Afghan communities, the religious aspects, the role of tribalism, the reality of a very conservative society which is diverse in itself, never have been understood sufficiently. The Taliban never disappeared within Afghanistan and even during the occupation – and if foreign troops stay for more than 20 years they most probably are perceived as occupiers – peace never really came to Afghanistan. This cannot only by concluded by the many young Afghans fleeing Afghanistan since many years towards Europe, Iran or other countries (and nobody flees its country if it is safe and prosperous, even if many think this is the case), but also with the high relevance of everyday violence, terrorist attacks and suicide bombers plus attacks by the Taliban themselves which frequently happened in the past.
It is important to note that of course many changes, also positive ones, happened within the last 20 years when it comes to women`s and children`s rights and other democratic successes, but we are speaking of one generation now when probably two or three would have been necessary to ensure that these sparks of democratic values are not wiped out within a short period under the Taliban rule.
The People Were Neglected
Many military observers are surprised how easy it was for the Taliban to advance step by step successfully with relatively low resistance by the regular troops who have been equipped and trained by the international troops for so many years and supported with huge amounts of money (the Us alone spent around 2 trillion Dollars in the last 20 years for the intervention). The highly corrupt elite in Afghanistan coupled with a lack of a common sense of what a state of Afghanistan means for the people is one of the explanations. The Taliban, on the other hand, offer an ideology, even though this is fragmented as well, depending on tribes and sometimes religious interpretations, which the state of Afghanistan lacks. Many of the regular troops never were committed to the state of Afghanistan, which is perceived by many as corrupt and failing, but rather to other factors which are important for Afghan societies, like tribes and tribal leadership, religions, families, economic ties. The belief in the statehood was never sufficiently created and people within Afghanistan are tired of violence and afraid of another bloody civil war.
While the troops were trained and equipped, the foreign forces forgot to engage more with the ordinary people in convincing them what freedom, not necessarily in a western liberal democratic way, could mean for them. Even though many believe that the Taliban are only succeeding because of their military strength it is said that they are also negotiating with regional people in power and warlords in order to convince them to hand over power in exchange for no violent escalation. Even though nobody knows how big the support of the population of the Taliban in reality is, it is fair to anticipate that many will accept them in order not to enter into another civil war.
To convince them that maybe – and the maybe here is important – it would have been worth fighting for the statehood of Afghanistan, many more efforts should have been made. However, all the good work of international organizations, NGOs, and individuals – including many Afghan citizens who engaged in women`s and girl`s education, in supporting marginalized groups and minorities - should not be neglected but highly appreciated.
However, fighting could always escalate in a full-scale war and the Afghan people are tired and afraid of this scenario. We should not forget about that as well.
Investing in people, in their education, in their skills in close collaboration with locals from all around the country and with a long-term perspective could have brought more sustainable prospects for the people and their lives than a highly equipped military.
Weapons do not bring peace
The well-equipped regular Afghan army has been defeated by the Taliban withing weeks. Most likely, the Taliban still used their old weapons or bought them at the black market with drug-money (which is a fair guess in a country of so many and long wars and violence) or took them over from the regular troops after their defeat. This might be another point of attention which could be part of the discussions when the situation stabilizes. What can the Taliban do with the high-tech weapons, combat helicopters and missiles they were able to capture from the regular troops? Might they gain the skills and experience to use them? What for? Do they have regional ambitions or are they, as they claim to have become, more sophisticated, mor matured, trying to shape the statehood of Afghanistan based on the Taliban-ideology?
However, what we can see is that the whole NATO/US- mission in the end did not bring peace for the Afghan people and many think that it was guaranteed to fail from the beginning. It is understandable that the US, after the big trauma of 9/11, invoked Article 5, especially after the Taliban (who by the way partly are the product of different Mujaheddin groups, which were supported by the West to undermine the ambitions of the Soviet Union in the region during the cold war) supported Al- Qaida and granted them protection. Still, it is easy to decide to intervene in a country with military force, but it is very difficult to estimate the success of such an operation, especially in a country where the “West” does not seem to be able to understand how the societies think and function – including history and other sociological elements which are important for the creation of a statehood. The Taliban have always remained a real force in Afghanistan, whether the West likes it or not.
We can now only hope that the Taliban did, as they claim, mature, and that they will have some flexibility in power-sharing with other elements within Afghanistan, but it is doubtful to trust them and from a human rights perspective the expectations are more than concerning if not even frightening.
For now, it seems, that the Taliban want a relationship with the international community – also for economic reasons, but we need to wait and see. China already accepted the Taliban by affirming to have friendly-relationships and Russia even praised them in their successful fight against the Islamic state. Others hope for negotiations - even Turkey who itself has not the best democratic record - but at these times, everyone should hope that the worst case does not become a reality and everyone who takes part in preventing escalation of violence and some guarantees of security for the Afghan people should be welcomed.
One needs to ensure, that the humanitarian assistance is granted for those in need and that the most vulnerable, women and girls, local employees who served as translators, as nurses and doctors, cooks, etc. with the international communities, minorities, opposition, officials, and foreigners are protected. The EU and the international community could play a role in this in exchange for humanitarian aid and some investments, which the Taliban will also need. It is not an easy task, but the only option the EU will have in the near future.
Iran is already setting-up puffer zones for Afghan refugees on its borders and Pakistan already hosts 1,4 Mio. Afghan refugees. The EU can observe for now but should engage immediately in preparing for further humanitarian assistance and dialogue with the Taliban, regional and foreign actors to prevent the worst for the Afghan people. As the Afghan Amb. to Austria said in a recent interview in Ö1 morning journal “The Taliban are a fact, if we like it or not”.
There was a kind of weak stability with the international troops, but the velocity of the changes shows that we are now where it started which can only be interpreted as a failure. The question about when to intervene militarily and how has never been an easy one and Afghanistan is not the only bad example. The situation in Libya is disastrous and Iraq is also far from peace. In Yugoslavia the violence could be ended, but there are still important issues when it comes to dealing with the past and how societies and minorities – which have not been subject to further attention by their own governments and leaders – can be supported to reconcile after so many atrocities.
However, the minimum requirement for a justified foreign military intervention is not to do more harm, but it is essential to analyze beforehand all the details, to look for alternatives, to look for regional partners who might be able to understand the specific circumstances better. And to understand that creating a narrative of a free Afghan state, to support basic democratic freedoms, is a very long-term project and can only accomplish what a military intervention initiated.
Austria is the only country within the EU that continues - for domestic political purposes - to further deport people to Afghanistan. This shows that it clearly does not understand the human tragedy which is happening in this country. Human rights are for everybody, no matter what religion, gender or ethnicity.
For now, we need to wait and see. With a big hope that those sparks of freedoms that reached Afghanistan in the last 20 years for some, are not erased completely.
Mag. Stephanie Fenkart MA is Director of the International Institute for Peace (IIP) since 2016. She has an MA in Development Studies from the University of Vienna and an MA in Human Rights from the Danube University, Krems. She is furthermore a member of the Advisory Committee for Strategy and Security Policy of the Scientific Commission at the Austrian Armed Forces (BMLV). She is also a board member of the NGO Committee for Peace, Vienna.
Background image - Sayed Hasib Maududi, Roshan Noorzai (VOA), Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons