Recently the IIP organized a discussion about the conflict in Ethiopia in the Tigray region. This event attracted great attention and an enormous number of viewers. As always political, economic and social factors contributed to the conflict, which will not be “solved” soon. Anyway, the result is much human suffering, and all victims need help. In addition, one can only hope that this and other tribal conflicts in the country are not doing too much damage to the economic progress the country could realize in the past years. A strong Ethiopia is needed for the stability of the Horn of Africa, a very fragile region.
This conflict is of course not the only one where force is used. The Sahel zone is suffering from many terrorist attacks and military reactions. The Congo has not come to rest (see my recent blog on the occasion of the killing of Lumumba 70 years ago) and is pulling its neighborhood into its fighting. However, in addition to these and other conflicts, Africa is also affected by the pandemic, we all suffer from. At the beginning of the pandemic, it seemed to be in a better situation.
Covid-19 and the lockdowns
The recent report of The Economist on the Corona crisis in Africa starts as follows: “At first glance, sub-Saharan Africa appears to have avoided the worst of the pandemic. It has 14% of the world’s population but, even as it is trenched by a second wave, just 3% of known cases and deaths. In 2020 its economy shrank by less than the global average, estimates the IMF. Eleven of the 24 countries that grew at all last year were in the region”. And the magazine “African Business” wrote in its recent edition: „In 2020 Covid-19 looked set to largely spare Africa as it cut a deadly swarth through other regions. No longer”.
When Africans still thought they could avoid a widespread infection by the Corona virus, it already became clear soon, that it could not avoid the economic and social consequences of the lockdowns they were forced to apply. One should not forget, that - like in Europe - the poorer a country is, the more difficult it is to compensate even a small decline in economic growth due to the lockdowns. Even if the numbers of Covid-19 infections were correct - many experts think they were strongly underestimated- in many countries the social and economic effects were strong from the beginning of the pandemic.
Furthermore, different lockdowns were accompanying the end of a super-cycle of demand for oil, metals, and minerals. In many countries this led to a dramatic fall of income and to rising debts. For the World Bank, the pandemic has put for Africa “a decade of hard-won economic progress at risk.” Even if the commodity prices are on the rise again and new investments will come to some African regions, it will be difficult to catch up with the rest of the world, especially Asian countries.
Debt relief
2020 saw difficult negotiations about debt relief, which resulted in some agreements on a debt moratorium, but not really on a comprehensive debt-restructuring or better debt-cancellation. The Debt Servicing Suspension Initiative (DSSI), which suspended the service of the debt until December 2020 and has been extended for another six months did have only a small effect on the financial situation of heavily indebted countries. Furthermore, many governments fear that such measures would lead to the downgrading of their countries by different rating agencies and that this would diminish their chance to get new credits at reasonable conditions on the private markets. Thus, it is difficult to decide between scylla and charybdis, that is between asking for debt-relief or trying to cut expenditures in order to pay their heavy debts back.
Anyway, the financial situation in many countries reduced and reduces the budgetary capacity for supporting the victims of Covid -19 and the results of lockdowns. Again, already inside the EU we see a widespread gap between different countries concerning their financial possibilities to compensate lost income of companies or employees. Primarily that gap exists between the South and the North inside Europe but also globally. Most African countries suffer from a lack of functioning infrastructure. The enormous reduction in tax income is strongly reducing the necessary investments into this infrastructure which is again hampering the economic development.
And the youth?
As in many countries one important element of the lockdowns has been the closing of schools and the transition to homeschooling. But in Africa the supply of the necessary technical equipment for adequate homeschooling- from computer or laptops to internet connections - is much worse than in European countries. For the rising number of young people, the weakening of education and professional training is reducing their chances to find an internationally competitive job. The big advantages of having a young energetic and aspiring generation may become a disadvantage when many of them cannot get a job.
Especially girls are de facto more affected than boys. In case no schooling is functioning, more girls than boys are taken out of the education process. And it is known that girls without formal schooling are getting children at a younger age and get more children in general. That means less income and less independence for them.
The effects on migration
Covid-19 also led to more closed borders. At the end of 2020 borders of 43 of 54 countries were closed. Many migrants were trapped, and others were looking for alternative routes, which were even more dangerous. When we speak about African migration, we must know that about 80% of migrants stay in Africa. Migration off the continent dropped significantly. This concerns Europe, but also migration form the Horn of Africa towards Yemen, Saudi Arabia etc. Concerning Europe, we see -besides a strong drop in numbers - also a shift to the more dangerous routes, such as from West Africa to the Spanish Canary Islands.
Recently a former Austrian foreign minister, who is now leading the “International Centre for Migration Policy Development” (ICMPD) expressed his fear, that a rise in migration from Africa to Europe will happen, due to free vaccination in Europe. “In the EU you get vaccinated for free. This might be extremely attractive for migrants from Africa, Latin America and Asia”. Even though one could doubt that free vaccination would be a strong pull factor for potential migrants, it would have been necessary for the ICMPD as a migration policy institute to argue for quick and free vaccination in Africa and all countries of this world and not to raise new fears in Europe.
Vaccination inequality
According to estimates of the Economist Intelligence Unit, there will be a time gap of up to 2 years in widespread vaccination. For Europe and the US, it is estimated that one can find a widespread vaccination in late 2021. Even if this is somewhat overestimated, for the most part of Africa the same level of vaccination is estimated only for 2023 and after. Egypt, Ethiopia, and Kenya could do better and especially South Africa could be in an exceptionally good position. But one must know that South Africa has about a third of Covid-19 infections in Africa. And in view of the South African mutant of the virus it would be beneficial for all people around the globe if South Africa would be successful in its vaccination campaign.
Overall, it would be incredibly important for global health to strengthen the vaccination efforts in all countries and to deviate from the often-found narrow minded vaccination eurocentrism or even nationalism. Covax, the initiative which is targeted to help poorer countries in their vaccination effort should get strong international support. In view of the lack of ultra-cold storage one must also give Africa those vaccines they can more easily distribute and use. Of course, they must be effective for the virus mutates, which are widespread in different African countries. In addition, it will be necessary, that African countries are offered fair prices. Some small countries were asked to pay double the price of Europe for the same vaccines. Fortunately, the African Union together with the Afreximbank founded an African Medical Supplies Platform and ordered 270 million doses, but this is of course not enough for a vaccination rate of 60%. Chinese and Russian vaccines may add to the necessary supplies.
As I argued in my last blog for a global vaccination policy, I would like to argue, that especially Africa must be part of such a global strategy. Also, in Africa exist leaders who deny the virus or at least the usefulness of vaccines. Tanzania‘s president, John Magufuli, for example argues, that as the white man was not able to produce a vaccine against malaria and cancer, he will not be able to produce a vaccine against Corona. And he gave some strange advice how to combat Covid-19. But for me another kind of an African leader, Paul Kagame is more relevant: „Until Africans get Covid-19 vaccination they need, the whole world will suffer.”
Dr. Hannes Swoboda, President of the International Institute for Peace (IP), started his career in urban politics in Vienna and was elected member of the European Parliament in 1996. He was Vice President of the Social Democrat Group until 2012 und then President until 2014. He was particularly engaged in foreign, enlargement, and neighborhood policies. Swoboda is also President of the Vienna Institute for International Economics, the Centre of Architecture, the University for Applied Science - Campus Vienna, and the Sir Peter Ustinov Institute.