Robert Sapolsky, a professor of biology at Stanford University observed three typical psychological reactions to the covid-19 pandemic stemming from the fact that the virus is invisible: 1) I do not see this virus and thus it does not exist, so let’s have fun; 2) I do not see this virus thus it can be everywhere, so I need to protect myself (anxiety arises); 3) I do not see the virus, but it is everywhere, it is hopeless (depression arises). ‘It is hard to relate rationally to invisible things’ – resumes Sapolsky.
Belarus, until today, has hardly implemented any measures to stop the spread of the pandemic. All three reactions described above find its manifestation in this country even more visibly. Some people wear masks on the streets and in public places, others do not, even if they are sneezing and coughing. Many do restrict their social contacts. Others fatalistically say that one cannot avoid the disease if it is meant to be. Today, Belarus is indeed going through a ‘corona-psychosis’ - as it was infamously called by Belarus’ president and the virus denier Aliaksandar Lukashenka back in spring. However, this psychosis is happening due to the lack of an organized response to the pandemic, not because of the overwhelming measures, as was argued by Belarus’ ruler. Belarusian hospitals are overcrowded today. Only most acute cases are hospitalized, others are left for home treatment. While, according to official statistic, the daily rate of infections stands at about 1000, it is clearly underreported. Doctors unofficially say one should multiply the daily infection rate by at least 15 to get somewhat close to the real numbers.
However devastating the health situation looks like, Belarusians today are experiencing many other anxieties, probably even more painful than covid-19, as they are caused not by an invisible virus but by specific individuals - their fellow citizens: friends, family, neighbors and colleagues.
Belarusian protest continues
Belarusians have taken to the streets of their cities and towns for three months now, demanding free and fair elections after the presidential vote in August had been blatantly rigged. However, the last two weeks have seen a drop in the numbers of protesters. Also, last Sunday around a thousand demonstrators were detained, a way more compared to the previous weeks (before numbers varied around 200 to 400). Apart from the capital, fewer rallies happened in the regions. The ultimatum by the exiled opposition leader Sviatlana Tsichanouskaya failed to reignite the protest, and the nation-wide strike that she called for did not take place. Workers of state enterprises keep joining the strike until this day but it is done by individuals not whole factories.
From August to November over 17 thousand people have been detained and abducted for participating in peaceful protests. Not a single legal case has been opened against policemen and special security forces who shot at the demonstrators, beat them up and tortured in prisons. Reports of international organizations prove these allegations, as well as that the elections results were falsified. For example, the Report under the Moscow mechanism by the OSCE concluded that there were ‘evident shortcomings of the presidential elections’ and that major human rights abuses ‘were found to be massive and systematic and proven beyond doubt’. The United Nations Human Rights Council voted that UN Belarus monitor Anais Marin should report on the government crackdown against the protesters and should be allowed access to the country and prisons there. However necessary these recommendations and initiatives are, there is no mechanism that could ensure their implementation.
Security forces detain protesters not only on the streets during the rallies but also on their way home when people had already broken up into smaller groups. They follow chats and groups of activists on popular platform Telegram where coordination happens. They threaten and detain them in front of their houses. Many test positive on covid-19 after having spent 15 days in jail (a ‘standard’ sentence for detained protesters). Stories about unbearable conditions in prisons and torture are already widely known and it makes people think twice before going to demonstrations. No one is ´immune´ from ending up in prison. Numerous actors, sportsmen, university professors, musicians, journalists have served this sentence, some repeatedly.
What about the opposition leadership?
The leadership of the main opposition body – the Coordination Council – have fled the country. Many of its members who are still in Belarus are in jail. As a solution to the current crisis the Council has initially proposed a dialogue with Lukashenka. However, the latter does not seem inclined to it. His visit to the prison last month where he met with former presidential hopefuls (jailed even before the elections) and other core opposition members did not look like dialogue or negotiations at all, according to one of its participants - an ‘exchange of views’ at most. Dialogue means a discussion of equals. It cannot be led with arrested or exiled opposition leaders.
The former presidential candidate and member of the Coordination Council Sviatlana Tsichanouskaya has been actively visiting EU capitals, meeting with officials and local diasporas to gather support for Belarus. While Tsichanouskaya has become a symbolic figure of anti-Lukashenka struggle, for many Belarusians the role of the Coordination Council as a body is still not clear. A recent survey showed that only 11 percent of respondents considered it very effective and a bit under 50% found it somewhat and completely trustworthy. When asked how well the Council represented various segments of the society, opinions were split. On the scale from one to five each response got from 15% to 25%.
Friends and members of the Coordination Council are also running a solidarity fund By_Sol that provides financial assistance to those who have been fired, fined or arrested for their political views. It particularly focuses on workers who join the nation-wide strike and therefore are in danger of losing their jobs or being legally prosecuted. The fund also works with former policemen and security forces members who left their jobs in protest to violence against Belarusians.
With this picture in mind, has the political momentum already gone for a change in the country?
Is the political momentum gone?
Belarusians have stayed true to the principle of non-violence. Despite the brutal repressions by security forces, the demonstrators have not responded in the same manner. This might be one of the reasons why Lukashenka did not back off, increased the repressions and thus gained an upper hand. At the same time, more bloodshed has been spared and a moral truth stayed on the side of the demonstrators. While still in power, Lukashenka’s rule has been critically weakened and, according to many observers, he will be gone from politics in the near future.
What is unclear though is what his departure will bring and how it will happen. Calls of the Coordination Council for dialogue remained unanswered. The demands of demonstrators and opposition have thus boiled down to three points: end of violence, release of political prisoners and new elections. The latter one cannot happen while Lukashenka is still in power. Thus, the space for dialogue or any political compromise between the opposition and the regime is shrinking. Society is becoming more polarized.
External actors
Lukashenka has managed to resist the pressure of the street due to his reliance on the loyal elites and particularly the security apparatus. Another key factor was Russian support. However, with Lukashenka weakened as he is right now, Russia intends to support his regime only for the time that is needed to secure a political transition in accordance with Moscow’s interests. The Kremlin is pressing for a constitutional reform in Belarus, although it is hardly interested in a Western-style democracy. Decentralization of powers, privatization of state enterprises and other reforms can be used to ensure a broader and more influential Russian representation in Belarusian politics, economy, culture, education, etc. ‘Managed democracy’ – something known to Moscow from home – is more likely under this scenario.
The West cannot do a lot politically, as its ties with Belarus previously had not been particularly strong. Although with Joe Biden in the White House, its role might increase. The EU recently extended its sanctions list against individuals responsible for repressions and election fraud in Belarus. It now includes Lukashenka himself as well as more of his loyalists. The West can further help the citizens and civil society who suffered from or are in danger of repressions. In short, it can help build the intellectual and political capital of Belarus that, sadly, might leave the country in even bigger numbers in the near future (about 13 thousand left the country in August-September 2020).
Marylia Hushcha is a Research Assistant at the International Institute for Peace in Vienna and is a board member of Think Tank Ponto. She previously worked at Pontis Foundation in Slovakia, where she managed a capacity-building project for NGOs in Russia. Marylia has completed training and fellowship programmes at the United Nations Office in Belarus, the European Academy of Diplomacy in Warsaw, and the University of San Diego. She holds a Master’s degree in European Studies from Comenius University in Bratislava.