On Tuesday 26 May, 2026, the International Institute for Peace, in cooperation with Dialogbüro Vienna jointly hosted a discussion on the evolving domestic dynamics inside Russia since the beginning of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Four years after the launch of the full-scale war against Ukraine, this panel examined how the conflict has reshaped political, economic, and social life inside Russia. What initially came as a shock to much of the political and economic elite has since evolved into a system marked by consolidation, militarization, and growing dependence on the state. While early reactions ranged from uncertainty to passive acceptance, the prolonged nature of the war has fundamentally altered the composition and incentives of Russia’s ruling class.

The discussion highlighted how sustained military engagement and high casualty rates required more than passive public acquiescence. State-led propaganda has been complemented by the systematic expansion of military-patriotic education, particularly in schools, alongside intensified repression. Independent media and civil society organizations have effectively disappeared, while political opposition has been neutralized and the number of political prisoners has increased significantly.

On the economic front, the panel explored how Russia has adapted to Western sanctions by reorienting trade toward non-Western partners, especially China. While certain sectors, particularly the military-industrial complex, have experienced growth, this shift has reinforced a war-dependent economic model. At the same time, the contraction of the civilian economy has contributed to declining living standards and reduced welfare for large parts of the population.

The event provided a detailed assessment of how these structural changes translate into everyday realities for Russian citizens. It examined the cumulative effects of repression, propaganda, and economic transformation on public discourse, social cohesion, and individual adaptation strategies under conditions of prolonged conflict and state control.