International Institute for Peace

The International Institute for Peace (IIP) is an international and non-governmental organisation (NGO and INGO), with consultative status at ECOSOC and UNESCO. The IIP pursues the objective of contributing to the maintenance and strengthening of peace through its research activities and as a platform to promote non-violent conflict resolution in different areas of the world and to a wide range of people.

**EU WAHL 2024**

Im Mai 2024 finden die nächsten Wahlen zum Europäischen Parlament statt. Dieses Parlament wählt dann auch den Kommissionspräsidenten bzw. die Kommissionspräsidentin und die Europäische Kommission. Die Europäische Union deren Kern nach dem 2.Weltkrieg und auf den Trümmern dieses Kriegs als Friedensprojekt aufgebaut wurde steht vor großen Herausforderungen. Der Angriffskrieg Russlands gegen die Ukraine, die globalen Gewichtsverschiebungen in Richtung Globaler Süden und der Klimawandel sind nur einige davon. Die Wahlen zum Europäischen Parlament werden mit entscheiden, ob und wie die EU diese Herausforderungen meistern kann. Daher werden wir unter dieser Rubrik in den nächsten Wochen Blogs, Interviews und Podcast bringen die sich genau mit diesen Themen beschäftigen.
**BLOGS**

**THE EU’S ROLE IN THE SOUTH CAUCASUS:**
**A FORCE FOR PEACE?**

The South Caucasus is home to several protracted conflicts that have progressed in varying directions over recent years. The September 2020 war between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh resulted in a complete victory for Azerbaijan. Opting for force over negotiations, Baku launched another military offensive in September 2023, which led to the mass exodus of ethnic Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh. Meanwhile, in Georgia, political polarization has been on the rise in light of the upcoming parliamentary elections in 2024. On December 14, the European Council granted Georgia candidate status which was welcomed by Georgian people. However, it remains to be seen whether Georgia manages to fulfill conditionalities in order to further progress on the European integration path. The IIP, in cooperation with partners, organized an expert conference on 27 November 2023 to discuss ongoing developments in the South Caucasus and assess the EU’s role in the region.
**Conference Paper / Podcasts / Event / Interviews**

**Russia`s War against Ukraine: Where are We Now?** **(Episode 16)**

The Russian war of aggression against Ukraine entered its 3rd year and an end still seems to be far away. While the destruction of infrastructure is ongoing, millions of people were forced to flee, the population is traumatized and, on the battlefield, there seems to be a stalemate. Yet, the EU - countries are still voicing their support for Ukraine. However, in the US the narrative is slowly shifting towards the necessity of entering negotiations in light of US elections later this year. On the other hand, the sanctions regime is still upheld and, at least in the short-term, the expected results have not materialized. How could an end to the war look like? Who could be negotiating considering Russia still didn`t abandon its maximalist demands. What role has the so-called global South and how is the economic relationship between Russia and China developing? What does the destruction and the loss of population mean in the long-term for Ukrainian economy and what role does the EU-perspective man in this context? With the global shift of attention towards the war of Israel against Hamas in Gaza, is peace still possible in Ukraine?
**Mit Gerhard Mangott, Richard Grieveson & Stephanie Fenkart**

THE ARMENIA-AZERBAIJAN CONFLICT AFTER BAKU’S TAKEOVER OF NAGORNO-KARABAKH: WHAT’S NEXT?

What does the new reality in Nagorno-Karabakh mean for the future of the conflict and the South Caucasus region? Is further military escalation still possible? What role do external powers, such as Russia, Turkey, and the EU, play in this conflict and the South Caucasus region more broadly? What is the situation of Karabakh Armenians today? Why are the violent means of taking control over Nagorno-Karabakh perceived as restoring justice in Azerbaijan? Are there any prospects for a genuine dialogue between the conflicting parties? Can the EU play a role in supporting efforts towards a sustainable solution and preventing further violence? This panel of eminent experts will attempt to answer these and many other questions surrounding the deep-rooted conflict in this part of the European neighborhood.

ENLARGEMENT: TOWARDS A NEW EU STRATEGY?

On November 9th, 2023, the EU Commission presented its yearly enlargement report. The beginning of its communication states: “Today, the Western Balkans, Türkiye, Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia have a historic window of opportunity to strongly bind their future to the European Union.” The Commission also cited the conclusions of the European Council at its meeting in Granada, at which “EU leaders reconfirmed enlargement as a geo-strategic investment in peace, security, stability and prosperity.“

NO SILVER BULLET FOR PEACE BETWEEN ARMENIA AND AZERBAIJAN

Baku and Yerevan have failed to reach a peace treaty in the wake of the 2020 Second Karabakh War and Azerbaijan’s lighting operation to take over Karabakh on September 19, 2023. This failure is due to two fundamental issues. First, both Yerevan and Baku have been in search of a silver bullet to make peace and resolve all their problems once and for all. Second, they have sought such a silver bullet in different capitals, from Moscow to Washington, from Ankara to Brussels and Paris. Instead, they should accept that either no such silver bullet exists or, if it does, it lies in small, tangible steps, uneasy concessions, and slow and long processes of reconciliation and conflict transformation that require them both to capitalize on their own potential for peace. In this context, the Armenian-Azerbaijani joint statement on prisoner exchanges and other confidence-building measures is a good illustration.

2024 - AUSSICHT AUF FRIEDEN ?

Das abgelaufene Jahr war wahrlich kein friedliches. Der zerstörerische Krieg Russlands gegen die Ukraine ging weiter und die Hamas startete mit einem unentschuldbaren und grausamen Angriff gegen Israel einen neuen Krieg bzw. das Wiederaufleben immer wieder aufflammender kriegerischer Auseinandersetzung. Für beide Kriege besteht zu Beginn des Neuen Jahres kaum Aussicht auf ein Ende - jedenfalls auf keine dauerhafte Lösung.

NAGORNO-KARABAKH: WHAT’S NEXT FOR THE PROSPECTS TO RETURN?

One of the last bus convoys carrying Nagorno-Karabakh Armenians arrived in Armenia during the first week of October. Armenia’s southernmost region Syunik is currently serving as a refuge for thousands. Community centers and hotels are full, as people are left to make sense of the situation and think about how to get out of the current predicament. Over 100,000 Armenians have left Nagorno-Karabakh. According to the United Nations, the remaining Armenian population in Nagorno-Karabakh is now fewer than 1,000 individuals.

WHAT MAY HAPPEN IN 2024 IN ARMENIA – AZERBAIJAN NEGOTIATIONS

Three months ago, hopes were high that Armenia and Azerbaijan were close to signing a peace agreement by the end of 2023. The logic behind this was the narrative that the status of Nagorno-Karabakh and the fate of the Armenian population were the main obstacles to the peace agreement. After the military takeover of Nagorno Karabakh by Azerbaijan in September 2023, what could else hinder the peace process? Everything was ready to finalize the agreement during a meeting in Granada on October 5, and then sign the peace deal in Brussels or Washington by the end of 2023.

UPCOMING EVENTS

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